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Wednesday 14 June 2023

The Daily Money: Disconnect between current rents and shelter inflation data

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The CPI program collects rent data from each rental unit every six months since rents are locked in place for a given lease term.

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The Daily Money

ALL THE MONEY NEWS YOU NEED TO KNOW

Wed Jun 14 2023

 

Swapna Venugopal Ramaswamy  National Housing and Economy Correspondent

@SwapnaVenugopal

Happy Hump Day, dear The Daily Money readers.

If you breathed a sigh of relief at the news of recent rent price drops, you might have been surprised by yesterday's CPI report numbers on the increasing cost of shelter as the biggest contributor to inflation.

The overall shelter costs were up 8% from a year ago and rent inflation stood at 8.7%, according to the Consumer Price Index report, which also shows that annual increase in inflation  has fallen for the 11th straight month and is now at the lowest level in more than two years.

Even more perplexing: Nationwide, rents declined 1% from a year earlier in May−the largest drop since 2020−as a building boom increased supply and economic uncertainty cooled demand, according to Redfin.

One reason for the disconnect: The way in which the Bureau of Labor Statistics collects its data.

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Rental inflation

xeni4ka / iStock via Getty Images

The CPI program collects rent data from each rental unit every six months since rents are locked in place for a given lease term. It also allows for a larger sample, according to the BLS.

However, in a fast changing, volatile housing market, that measure can seem outdated compared to private indexes that look at current leases.

"At the beginning of this year, landlords were beginning to drop rents. And that means that leases that are coming online now in June, for example, would reflect those lower rents. If rents indeed are coming down in a systematic way, we should see that reflected in the CPI as we head through the summer," says Bright MLS Economist Lisa Sturtevant.

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Each weekday, The Daily Money delivers the best consumer news from USA TODAY. We break down financial news and provide the TLDR version: how decisions by the Federal Reserve, government and companies impact you.

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In a fast changing, volatile housing market, the CPI report can seem outdated compared to private indexes that look at current leases.

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